When Louisville’s time-expiring Field Goal attempt sailed wide left and the Hoos streamed onto the field in celebration of their gripping fourth quarter comeback win, the UVA program officially hit the midpoint of their regular season. Virginia sits at 4-2 (2-2), which marks halfway through its 12 game slate and 8-game ACC slate. We’ve finished our Atlantic Division crossovers, of course, going 1-1 against Wake and Louisville, and now have four Coastal games remaining along with two major non-conference clashes.

The midpoint makes an excellent opportunity to review our progress and our original expectations, so for this space I want to do so by revisiting two of our key preseason articles: our Keys to the Season and our Bold Predictions. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? What judgments still hang in the balance?

Reviewing the Keys to the Season

Key to the Season #1 – Keep Brennan Healthy.

So far so good. We worried that a continuation of Brennan’s mild injury history (some minor stuff in 2019 when he was Perkins’ backup plus his 1-³/₄ missed games due to concussion last season)  could derail the year. He took a lot of hits last season as both the target of opposing pass rushes and a primary ball carrier. Compounding our worry is our lack of confidence, as of today, in any of the backup QBs to be able to carry UVA to a bowl game this season should the need arise.

The bad news is Virginia is allowing 3 sacks a game which is 2nd worst in the ACC. The veteran offensive line, expected to keep Brennan’s shirt clean all year, isn’t playing as well as we’d hoped. Now, part of that is the frequency we drop back; of course UVA throws way more than anyone else, so our sacks per dropback are more middle of the road. But the end result for this exercise is the same, Brennan’s getting hit a lot more than his counterparts. Brennan’s also carrying the ball a half dozen times a game (excluding those sacks), which is down from last year but still adds up. The more we can do to keep him clean, whether it’s more handoffs to the tailbacks(/receivers/FBP/wildcats) or just getting the ball out quicker so he takes fewer hits, the better to making sure this Key stays good for another 6+ games.

Key to the Season #2 – Get some Road Wins

A key part of UVA’s Coastal title in 2019 was a pair of ACC road wins over Pitt and UNC. Last year the Hoos went winless on the road (FSU’s last-minute cancellation was probably our best shot). We wanted to see Virginia bounce back here. Given how good we’ve been at Scott the last couple years, the road game wins have been the difference between okay seasons and really good ones.

Well, losing at home by 20 to Wake put us in a road/home hole this year, making the road games that much more important. We lost at UNC, where we’d won both in 2017 and 2019. But we bounced back with our first win at Miami in a decade, followed by a thrilling victory at Louisville, putting us at 2-1 in ACC road play going into the turn. Yes the margins of those victories were tight, but you try not to quibble over how the road wins happen.

Our road schedule was front-loaded by the ACC, three of our first four league contests away from Scott, so we’ve only got 1 ACC road game left, at current front-runner Pitt. That’ll be a tough game, as Pitt’s offense looks primed to put up a lot of points on us. And of course we’ve got our non-conference road game at BYU over Halloween weekend, and BYU is currently ranked with three wins over P5 opponents (and looking to get a 4th this weekend at Baylor). So it’s a tossup whether we’ll win any more road games this year. But to get 2 already is a major victory for the season, and now our ceiling largely hinges on getting back to defending the home turf at Scott down the stretch.

Key to the Season #3 – Better Secondary Play

Last year the Hoos were the worst pass defense in the ACC by a wide margin, allowing 304 passing yards a game where the next worst was GT at 270 yards a game. It was just as bad on a per-play basis where the secondary gave up a league-worst 9.4 yards per attempt with FSU’s 8.1 ypa next worst. There were a couple silver linings, namely the 11 INTs over 10 games, and our 62.8% completion percentage allowed was better than four teams’.

Bronco and Howell made some changes here in the offseason. Safety D’Angelo Amos graduated, as did Heskin Smith, and Brenton Nelson’s career ended to injuries. But we saw guys like Darrius Bratton, Antonio Clary, and Dave Herard come back healthy, and Tenyeh Dixon return from an Opt-Out season, and six new DB freshmen arrive alongside grad transfers from Louisville’s Anthony Johnson and ND State’s Josh Hayes. De’Vante Cross moved back to a FS/Nickel role from his boundary corner role. There were reasons we were optimistic it could be a bounce-back year for the secondary, if due to better health, depth, and competition if nothing else.

Virginia also threw an extra body at the position by changing our base defense from 3-4-4 to 3-3-5. And so far, the passing results by themselves are somewhat encouraging. Through six games the Hoos are giving up only 226.7 passing yards a game, 7th in the ACC. But the yards per attempt is 8.1, a modest improvement but still only ranking 12th of 14 teams. Far more concerning is the lack of INTs generated, only two so far after averaging one a game last season.

And of course the extra focus on pass coverage has meant a decreased focus on defending the run. Last season we were a Top 3rd team in the league in rush defense on both a yards per carry basis (3.74) and yards per game (138.5). This year those stats have tanked to be league worst in both categories (5.25 and 201.2, respectively). So is the secondary play better? Maybe. But does it mean the defense is better as a whole? Unfortunately not at all.

Bold Predictions Looking Right

Robert Predicts Brennan Earns All-ACC

Well leading all P5 quarterbacks nationally in passing yards per game at 410 ypg, and collecting three ACC QB-of-the-Week honors through six weeks is a great start, right? Along with accounting for 19 TDs? Add a competitive team record which may not have the Hoos out front of the league but at least right in the thick of it, and Brennan’s certainly in contention at the season’s midpoint.

Right now, the top 4 QBs in the ACC, in alphabetical order, are probably Armstrong, Wake’s Sam Hartman, UNC’s Sam Howell, and Pitt’s Kenny Pickett. Here are their stats.

Pickett probably gets 1st Team honors were the season to end today. His numbers are gaudy, and while his total yardage pales compared to Brennan, his completion rate is better and that lone INT is immaculate. Brennan probably slots 2nd after that, the total yardage gap between him and Hartman likely making the difference between the 2nd and 3rd Teams, though some voters may choose to reward Hartman for his team’s perfect record at the same time. Howell’s numbers are in the ballpark, but don’t stand out in this quartet, nor is he buoyed by a strong team performance, so if voting happened today, I think the preseason POY would only deserve the Honorable Mention slot (no telling what Carolina mafia voters would do, though).

All things told, Brennan, so long as he stays healthy, is trending for a spot on one of the All-Conference Teams, making this prediction a good one so far.

StLouHoo Predicts Ra’Shaun Henry Breaks Out

The prediction wasn’t that Henry would be the star of the receiving corps, of course. It’s way too deep a group that had Billy Kemp already cemented as a star and Wicks, Thompson, and transfer TE Jelani Woods all worthy of Brennan’s targets as well. The greatest strength of this receiving corps, of course, is its diversity and balance.

But what looks true is that Henry, who caught only 7 passes last year in his first season in Charlottesville, is not a fully trusted and capable member of the offensive arsenal. Through the first five games, the improvement in his stat line was real but quiet, accumulating 14 receptions for 233 yards and a score. Unfortunately his modest uptick had been overshadowed by Wicks’ breakout. But with Wicks sidelined most of Saturday’s game against Louisville, Ra’Shaun broke out, catching 9 balls for 179 yards. On the season his 23 catches rank 4th on the team but he’s only a couple behind Wicks (25). His total receiving yardage of 412 is also 4th but just behind those of Thompson (419) and Kemp (426). His Yards Per Catch of 17.9 trails only Wicks (22.2) of players to catch more than a handful of passes on the year.

As stated in the preseason predictions, Henry isn’t going to put up the numbers to get on an All-ACC team, but he is every bit as important as Brennan’s other targets and should continue to produce well down the stretch.

HooAMP Predicts We’ll Outscore the 2019 Team.

The 2019 offense under Bryce Perkins scored 32.1 ppg, a rate that ranked 40th nationally and 4th in the ACC. Through six games, under Brennan Armstrong’s UVA is putting up 34.2 ppg, the nation’s 36nd best rate and 5th in the league. Now, of course, we just need to see if the offense can keep it up. The competition level of course steps up from the first half without the likes of W&M or Illinois remaining on the schedule. UVA’s offense has taken a few lumps, with Wicks’ concussion, Jelani Woods’ ankle, KT’s wrist, and some concerns with tailbacks Taulapapa and Hollins as well.

But there’s also the potential to see some of those players return to good health, with maybe even Lavel Davis coming back for the final 3-game stretch. BYU and VT do present some of the nation’s stingier scoring defenses (20.5 and 18.6 ppg allowed, respectively). But Duke, GT, and Notre Dame have all had some poor defensive performances indicating UVA could put up points in those games. Heck, even Pitt let Western Michigan hang 44 on them at Heinz Field. We need to stay north of 30 ppg the rest of the way to keep the cumulative average north of the 2019 rate, and of course stay healthy. But so far so good.

Bold Predictions Looking Rough

StLouHoo Predicts Miami Runs Away with the Coastal

Woof. Looks terrible, doesn’t it? I tried not to read too much into the Canes getting thumped by Alabama, but when they struggled to beat Appalachian State at home the following week, the red flags were raised. It was followed by a blowout home loss to Michigan State, a season-ending injury to star QB D’Eriq King, and a home loss to UVA on a missed chip-shot FG.

It’ll be easy to just blame this one on the King injury, as RS Freshman backup Tyler Van Dyke is going to take his growing pain lumps this year. But the defense is getting worn down with the offense unable to move the ball, so while on a yards-per-play basis the D is solid if unspectacular, the end result is they’re failing to get off the field on 3rd Downs (only Duke’s defense allows a higher 3rd Down conversion rate), and they’re not generating turnovers (only 4 gained over five total games).

Manny Diaz is on the hot seat, and there are no easy games on the schedule anytime soon. Far from being this Miami’s first Coastal-winning season since 2017, it’s entirely possible they end up battling Duke for last place when those two teams meet in late November.

Robert Predicts Nick Jackson Sets the Single Season Tackle Record

In 2002, Angelo Crowell recorded a mind blowing 155 over 14 games (we played a bonus Kickoff game that year), over 11 tackles a game. Last season, true sophomore middle linebacker Nick Jackson, in his first season as a starter, racked up 103 over 10 games, so over 10 tackles a game. With the move to a 3-3-5 base defense putting even more focus on Jackson’s playmaking in the middle of the field, it was enough to wonder if Jackson couldn’t put up comparable numbers to Crowell in this new role.

Jackson is still leading the team in tackles, but at 53 is well short of the per-game rate needed to achieve this mark (currently at a clip of 8.8 tpg). The new defensive alignment, taking another middle linebacker out of the box, just means he more often has blockers to take on, leaving the strong safeties behind him like Blount, Coen, or Clary to finish the play. He’ll still likely finish the season north of 100 tackles if he stays healthy of course, especially if he can get some postseason statistics as well to pad the final totals. But the math at this point says that won’t be enough to put him in Crowell’s company this year.

Maybe next season?

HooAMP Predicts Virginia will field a Top 50 pass defense

Talked about the context for this some in our review of the Keys above, but let’s look at our statistics compared to the rest of D-1. UVA’s defense allowing 227.8 passing yards a game ranks 65th nationally. That’s probably our best statistic, as our 8.1 yards per pass attempt allowed ranks 99th, and our 2 INTs only 108th out of 130 teams. Nothing “Top 50” about it.

Down the stretch we have to face three top 50 pass attacks in Pitt’s (4th nationally), Duke’s (30th), and Notre Dame (34th).  GT and BYU pose more average passing threats (and VT’s is abysmal with their QB injury problems mounting), but on the whole it’s highly unlikely UVA’s pass defense really turns into anything better than below-average this year. We all watch the games, we see opposing receivers getting open way too easily yet again this season.

One more We’re Watching: Do the Hoos knock off Notre Dame?

StLouHoo predicted outright that the Hoos were going to upset the Irish. HooAMP predicted UVA would score 2 wins from the quartet of @UNC/@Miami/@BYU/ND, which at this point means predicting we get one of those two remaining OOC games. For the purpose of this exercise, let’s focus on the the Notre Dame game. It will no doubt be a major opportunity for Virginia to score a marquee win. BYU is ranked and winning in Provo in and of itself will be a major accomplishment. But while beating the Cougars might mean a lot personally to the staff, beating the 14th-ranked Irish would arguably mean more to the program. It’ll be a great reward for the home fans who come out to Scott that day, and the Hoos will be using the event as a major recruiting opportunity. That the Irish broke the Hokies’ hearts in Blacksburg would just make it sweeter.

So will the Hoos pull the upset off? The Irish offense is a giant question mark right now, with a QB controversy underway as transfer pro-style quarterback Jack Coan underwhelming and true freshman Tyler Buchner, well, a freshman. The defense is giving up 24.3 ppg which is 65th out of 130 nationally, perfectly mediocre. If VT’s busted quarterbacks could occasionally move the ball on Notre Dame’s defense, in theory a healthy UVA attack should have a very effective day, especially a mere week after the Irish defense goes astray prepping for Navy’s Triple Option.

Ultimately the UVA defense will need to do its part in not letting the Irish look as good as they did in hanging 40+ on both FSU and Wisconsin. But given UVA gets a bye week to rest, heal, and prepare going into this contest, we could certainly see yet another Bold Prediction come true.