UVA returns to the road for the second weekend of ACC play. After dropping the opening series to UNC, 2 to 1, the Hoos will be highly motivated to win in Tallahassee. They’ll arrive with a two-game winning streak in their pocket.

Florida State, victims of a home sweep at the hands of Pitt last weekend, will be eager to right their ship as well.

Team Records

Virginia: 5-3 (Overall), 1-2 (ACC)

Florida State : 2-4 (Overall), 0-3 (ACC)

Game Schedule

Friday, March 5: 6:00 PM

Saturday, March 6: 2:00 PM

Sunday, March 7: 1:00 PM

Stat Comparison

The format will be raw stat and then rank in Division 1. Info is as of games played on March 3.

Batting

OBP = On Base Percentage

SLG = Slugging Percentage

Pitching

K/9 = Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

BB/9 = Walks Per 9 Innings

Miscellaneous

FLD % = Fielding Percentage

SOS = Strength Of Schedule

Note that all stats are from NCAA.com. RPI and strength of schedule data is from Warrennolan.com and is as of games played through March 3, 2021.

Projected Starting Pitchers

Friday

FSU LHP Parker Messick (0-2, 7.36 ERA, 7.1 IP, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts) vs UVA LHP Andrew Abbott (1-1, 2.13 ERA, 12.2 IP, 2 walks, 15 strikeouts)

Messick, a redshirt freshman, will be making his third career start as a Seminole this weekend.

During the 2020 season, Messick made 11 appearances for FSU, but all were in relief. In those 11 relief appearances, Messick shined for the Seminoles. He finished the season with an ERA of 0.77 in 11.2 IP. Messick finished the abbreviated season with a 1-1 record and 1 save. He also struck out 19 batters against only 2 walks.

Messick’s final appearance of the 2020 season was an eye opener at Florida. He pitched 3.0 innings while striking out 7 Gators, walking none, and surrendering no runs.

Messick has struggled out the gate as a starter in 2021, however, with only his strikeout numbers looking good. His last outing, a start against Pitt, was a step in the right direction as he went 5.0 innings while giving up just 1 earned run. He still walked 4 batters in the start but did strike out 9. His first start of the season, against North Florida, was somewhat of a disaster. Messick lasted just 2.1 innings against the Ospreys where he surrendered 5 earned runs. He struck out 3 and only walked 1 in that outing. Florida State has lost both of Messick’s starts this year.

D1 Baseball describes Messick as featuring three pitches – a 90 to 93 MPH fastball, a plus changeup, and a good breaking ball. FSU pitching coach Jimmy Belanger said Messick was a pitcher that throws “strikes galore”.

This will be Messick’s first appearance against the Hoos.

Saturday

FSU LHP Bryce Hubbart (1-1, 3.18 ERA, 5.2 IP, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts) vs UVA RHP Griff McGarry (0-1, 3.00 ERA, 9.0 IP, 5 walks, 18 strikeouts)

The Noles will turn to another redshirt freshman lefty in Saturday’s game.

Hubbart will be making his first start of the season on Saturday against the Hoos. But during the 2020 season, he did make 3 starts for FSU. Those 3 starts were in addition to another 4 appearances in relief. He began the year as a reliever for the Noles, but finished as a starter as his 3 starts were his final 3 outings of the year.

During those 7 appearances in 2020, Hubbart pitched a total of 8.1 innings. He posted a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.48. Hubbart walked 8 and struck out 13 in those 8.1 innings.

Hubbart’s last outing against Pitt, a 4.1 inning relief appearance, represented the longest outing of his short college career. Against the Panthers he gave up 2 hits, 2 earned runs, walked 2, and struck out 9. He was also credited with the loss in that game.

D1 Baseball noted that Hubbart struggled with control as a true freshman in 2020. But they believe that he’s improved that aspect of his game. His fastball typically works 92 to 93 MPH but can top out at 95. He also features a plus curveball to go along with a developing changeup that was improving rapidly during the fall.

This will also be Hubbart’s first appearance against the Hoos.

Sunday

FSU RHP Conor Grady (1-0, 4.82 ERA, 9.1 IP, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts) vs UVA RHP Mike Vasil (2-0, 0.00 ERA, 12.0 IP, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts)

Florida State will turn to a veteran to close out in the series in redshirt junior righty Conor Grady. Grady will enter the game with 14 career starts under his belt including 2 this season. He’s also logged a total of 53 appearances during his career in Tallahassee.

Last season, Grady made 4 starts in as many appearances. His 3.00 ERA was lower than his career ERA of 3.82. During those 4 starts, Grady, who finished 2020 with a 2-0 record, pitched a total of 15.0 innings. He walked 8 and stuck out 15.

Grady has held down the Sunday starting role both weekends in 2021 for FSU. Last weekend against Pitt, he gave up 6 hits in 4.0 innings pitched. He also surrendered 3 earned runs, walked 2, and stuck out 4 Panthers. Grady earned a no decision in that start.

D1 Baseball describes Grady as a pitcher that pounds the zone. His velocity is up about 2 MPH to 91 to 93 on his fastball. He’s a classic three-pitch pitcher, but his hard slider is his go to out pitch.

Grady has 1 career appearance against UVA. During the Saturday game of the Hoos and Noles’ 2019 season series in Charlottesville, Grady pitched 2.0 innings of relief. In the 5 to 3 FSU win, Grady gave up 1 hit, 2 earned runs, walked 2, and struck out 1.

Weather Forecast Via Weather.com

The Hoos will welcome baseball in the warm Florida weather.

Friday evening’s contest will feature temps in the upper 60s at first pitch. By the game’s end, they will have dropped into the upper 50s. No precipitation is in the forecast but skies should be cloudy. It’s unlikely that the wind plays a role in this game.

On Saturday, the game will start under mostly cloudy skies and a 24% chance of rain. Temps will be in the lower 60s. As the game progresses, temps and the chance of rain will hold steady. Winds will be around 10 MPH for this one.

Sunday’s game should be contested under sunny skies with temps in the mid 60s. The threat of rain should be gone but the 10 MPH winds will likely stick around.

Media Coverage

Live streaming will be available on ACC Network Xtra. You can access the ACC Network Xtra stream via ESPN’s streaming platforms. Your content provider must carry ACC Network in order to access the stream.

There will also be radio coverage for the Friday and Sunday game from WINA. WINA.com will offer audio streaming while those in the Charlottesville area can hear the radio broadcast over the air on 1070 AM or 98.9 FM.

Seminoles To Watch

Normally, I’d flesh out this section a bit. But sometimes brevity will still get the point across. With that being said…

Elijah Cabell. Homerun. 489 feet.

Check out these numbers!

Elijah Cabell launched a ? that traveled 489 ft. with an exit velocity of 114mph. ?#NCAABaseball x ? @FSUBaseball pic.twitter.com/0OnAw1XJlV

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) March 3, 2021

Among Seminole regulars, also keep an eye out for redshirt freshman 1B Tyler Martin and redshirt sophomore catcher Matheu Nelson.

Finally, Virginia native and one time UVA commit Hunter Perdue is a reliever for Florida State having transferred in from State College of Florida in 2020.

Prediction

FSU is in their second season under Mike Martin Jr., the son of retired FSU legendary coach Mike Martin.

D1 Baseball picked the Noles 4th in the ACC Atlantic Division. League coaches picked FSU to finish 3rd in Atlantic and 5th overall in the ACC.

This isn’t the Florida State everyone is accustomed to. You can see that in their record. There’s not a lot of elite or well known talent on the squad. Florida State always recruits reasonably well, so it would be a mistake to simply look at their record to date and write this series off as an easy win.

Working in FSU’s favor should be the presence of a crowd in the stadium. Though heavily partisan, I’d expect the UVA players to benefit somewhat too from the livelier atmosphere present. They’ll enjoy the energy in the stadium after playing in front of mostly, or completely, empty stadiums so far. FSU will likely get a bigger bump from the home fans, though.

Expect both steams to scratch and claw all weekend as neither will want to drop their ACC series record to 0-2 two weeks into conference play.

I’m much more optimistic about UVA’s chances, however. A Wahoo sweep would not surprise me, honestly, as UVA’s two-game winning streak may have provided some much needed momentum. But I’m going to give FSU credit for one win on the weekend.

UVA wins the series, 2 to 1.