We’ve analyzed the opposition and the players, made our bold predictions, and now it’s time to give our keys to success for Virginia Basketball this season:

Kendall

1) Turnover rate needs to get back down into the 15% range. 20.1% last season killed us in too many games.

2) Tony has to loosen the reins and let the freshmen play and take their lumps!

3) Morsell, Woldetensae, and Hauser need to get their scoring averages into the double digits, and Abdur-Rahim needs to chip in around 8 ppg.

Eugene Mulero

The Cavaliers seem to often find comfort in playing at a slower tempo than their opponents. The team’s style of basketball has frustrated those players who are uncomfortable matching up against a disciplined half court zone defense. Even the most talented, isolation-minded teams that are unaccustomed to the so-called slow game will be at risk to be on the losing end against UVA. A successful UVA season needs to be anchored on

(1) methodical, laser-sharp defense;

(2) quality ball-handling that minimizes turnovers;

(3) and astonishing output offensively and defensively from transfer Sam Hauser.

StLouHoo

1) Two competent shooters emerge at the 2 and 3 spots. Last year’s team shot a collective 30.3% on 3-point shooting, 311th in the country. It improved slightly in ACC play to 31.4% but that was still a bottom-half performance and nothing like the shooting clinics we put on in past years, our team average between 38% and 41% the previous four seasons. For UVA to return to national title contender status, the offense needs to bounce back in a big way, and that has to start with competent 3-point shooting to effectively space the floor.

Gone is Braxton Key, a quintessential glue guy defender, rebounder, and scorer around the rim, but often playing woefully out of position on offense as a Big 3 while shooting a mere 18.5% on his 3-point attempts. Mamadi (35.7% on 3’s) also graduates, though it probably means more shots for Huff (35.8% last year, career 38.5%), and of course we add Sam Hauser (career 44.5% on high volume) to be our face-up-4. Kihei also shot a respectable 37.5% last year as well.

But ultimately we need shooters at the 2 and 3 spots. Tomas Woldetensae shot 38.3% from deep in ACC play last year, but he was streaky as hell, and over his last 5 games last year went just 4-of-22 once defenses finally adjusted to him. Maybe we bank on Casey Morsell (17.6% as a freshman) or Kody Stattmann (career 26.9%) to complete a miracle turnaround. Or maybe we see one of the freshmen seize a role, Carson McCorkle definitely having a reputation as a fearless sniper and Jabri Abdur-Rahim putting up respectable numbers in HS and AAU, capped by some lights-out shooting at the NBPA Top 100 camp last summer.

But I think we need to see at least two of these guys emerge with the ability to hit 36% or better on solid volume if we really want to see the offense bounce back, the spacing improve, and not need to count on our defense to win rock fights in the 50’s.

2) We deploy Huff as a Pick-and-Roll/Pop monster. It goes without saying, UVA’s never had a player like Jay Huff. Forget about the defense for a minute (we’ll touch on that next); on offense everyone loves him for his 3-point shooting and his one-dribble drives to the rim off a pump fake. And those are great. But his real value can come in a renewed emphasis on running the pick-and-roll with Kihei Clark.

Jay scored an insane 1.32 points per possession as the roll-man on screen actions last year, per Synergy Sports, which put him in the top 10% of players nationally. Kihei is very good at putting the ball up where Jay, with his incredible length and dexterity on the move, can get it above defenders and finish at the rim. It’s a modern offense that’s incredibly hard to stop, especially because Jay can then counter with a pick-and-pop action if the defense is over-playing the roll. Jay screens, fades to the 3-point line, where he’s in the 77th percentile as a spot-up shooter (and that statistic includes all college players, shooting guards included, so you can imagine he compares even better against pure big men).

The sooner Reece Beekman can develop similar chemistry running a P-n-R offense with Jay, the better, because it’s maybe the most dangerous weapon in our offensive arsenal. Run it to a strong side with Sam Hauser in the corner, defenses have to pick their poison who to cover, and if we fix the shooting enough from the guards (see previous key) to force defenders to honor shooters on the perimeter, that means they can’t help as much in the paint, leaving good spacing for Kihei and Jay to attack the rim in tandem.

3) We minimize the drop-off in front-court defense. In last year’s season preview, I boldly predicted the Hoos would be “swat city.” That proved true, as Mamadi Diakite (1.3 bpg), Jay Huff (2.0 bpg), and Braxton Key (0.6 bpg) were the most effective trio of rim protectors not just in the ACC but in the country. The Hoos led D-1 in block rate, swatting an insane 16.5% of all opponent shot attempts.

Mamadi and Braxton are gone. Sam Hauser joins the front court rotation this year with career block averages of around 0.5 a game, respectable but not necessarily imposing. Francisco Caffaro’s block rate of 4.5% last year, on limited volume obviously, was similarly respectable, and would be good for close to a block a game if playing closer to main rotation minutes, so there’s hope he can put his 7′ frame to good use in his 3rd year of US ball. Justin McKoy, in his minutes as a reserve 4, may also put his athleticism and IQ to use as a help-side defender, similar to the role Wilkins carved out.

Our defense likely isn’t going to be quite the monstrosity it was last year with a brick wall of rim protectors cleaning up everything in the paint. But if our 4- and 5-spots can play solid defense around the rim, any defensive drop-off should be manageable, buying our guard rotation time to shake out.

Hooamp

1. Reece Beekman turns into a significant player by the end of the season, taking pressure off of Kihei Clark. Beekman will be one of the keys to the year, because he becomes a quality backup for Clark, something that was missing last year. This means Clark will be able to take a few more breathers, allowing him to pick his spots more effectively on offense. Clark finished 18th nationally last season in minutes per game, so Beekman’s emergence will help save Clark for the most important games of the year. It won’t happen right away, and Clark is going to remain the starter, but as the calendar is close to flipping to March, the light bulb will start to turn on for Beekman. Tony Bennett will feel confident enough to deploy both on the court at the same time more frequently, as he did with Clark and Ty Jerome during the championship run two seasons ago. Having two quality ball handlers on the court unlocks the full potential of the offense, setting the stage for success in March.

2. The Wahoos get an adequate contribution out of the 3 spot. Whether it is Kody Stattmann, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, or some combo of them or others, the Cavaliers need to get quality minutes from that position to follow in the footsteps of guys like Braxton Key and De’Andre Hunter. Obviously, Key was a step down offensively from Hunter, who could even play the 4. Now someone else needs to step up. Maybe Stattmann improves or JAR has a breakout freshman campaign. Whatever the case, I feel like it is an important spot, and finding production there will be crucial.

3. Sam Hauser is the player we expected on offense, and a bit better than expected on defense. A huge part of the excitement surrounding this season’s Cavaliers centers on Hauser, who joined the team after it won the championship. So I think it only makes sense that a key to 2020-21 is for Hauser to provide one of those extra pushes they need to compete for another title. For more than a year, fans have waited to see what Hauser brings to the table. Two years ago, Hauser put up 14.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game while shooting 40.2% from beyond the arc and 92.4% at the line. While his averages will be down due to UVa’s slow pace, his shooting percentages will hopefully be very similar, maybe even better, and Virginia also needs him to be a quality rebounder after the graduation of Key and Mamadi Diakite. Additionally, a knock on Hauser has been his defense, but if he works hard, I’m confident a year sitting out and learning the Pack-Line was beneficial, and maybe he can be a little better than expected on that end of the floor.

Karl Hess (Not the Real Ref)

1. Kihei and Reece Beekman’s are going to play a ton of minutes together in the backcourt. The sooner the duo learn to play off of one another and develop chemistry on the court, the sooner the UVA offense will begin to flourish. UVA’s offense can quickly become deadly if the spacing provided by Sam Hauser and Jay Huff allow Clark and Beekman to pick defenses apart via paint touches and kick outs or drop off dimes.

2. The loss of Braxton Key and Mamadi Diakite will require Jay Huff to be a grown man on the defensive end of the floor. Huff will find himself responsible for cleaning up mistakes that reach the paint, owning the defensive glass, and protecting the rim. We at HOOS Place expect Jay to be up to the task as we selected him as our ACC Defensive Player of the Year. As a reminder, Huff led UVA scholarship players last year in Defensive Rebound Percentage (20.5%) and Block Percentage (11.1%).

3. The Hoos must develop a consistent third scorer to support Sam Hauser and Jay Huff. There are plenty of candidates on the roster and it could be a game by game scenario to see who steps up. But, I’d feel much more comfortable if there’s some level of consistency here instead of trying to determine each game who will be that guy. Tomas Woldetensae and Jabri Abdur-Rahim are the most obvious options to grab that mantle unless Trey Murphy pursues and gets a waiver to play immediately this season. If that happens, Murphy should fill that third scorer role rather easily.

Val Prochaska

1) The first key to greatness in any sport is availability.  You have to be there for the games.  Usually we mean player availability as regards to physical injuries, but playing in the midst of the pandemic means that strict bubbles have to be maintained.  As I write this, our much-anticipated game with Florida has been cancelled and half a dozen Power 5 programs have been set to “pause.” Bennett’s most important challenge will be keeping everyone available all season.

2) Casey Morsell.  This is what I wrote last year:

I’ve had time to think about this and I’ve come to the realization that Morsell is going to get the biggest opportunity to shine as a freshman that any player has had during the Bennett tenure.  Yeah, Bennett gave the keys to the UVa bus to London Perrantes as freshman, but he had Brogdon and Harris in the backcourt.  The Mong00se walked into a starter’s responsibilities, but again, he had Guy and Ty Jerome.  I love Kihei, but Morsell is going to have to be “The Guy” from the get-go. He’s going to have to score and he’s going to have to be a lock down defender under the extended 3-point regime.  It’s a lot to ask.  But he played in one of the best scholastic leagues in the country.  He should be as prepared to shine as the numerous one and dones that have graced UNC and Duke.

He didn’t step up like we wanted last year, so this is a make or break year, I fear, for Morsell.  Casey started, as expected, from the first game, but with the sort-of emergence of Tomas Woldetensae and the arrival of a pure shooter in Carson McCorkle, Casey has stiff competition for the 2.  How well Casey shrugs off last year’s failures will go a long way to determining team success this year.

3) Enjoying the moment. The championship run began in games where the legend of Grant Kersey was born.  When Kersey ripped the ball out of a Marshall defender’s hands, stepped back beyond the arc, and nailed the three – all to give Tony Bennett his first ever 100 point game – there was joy.  Basketball was fun again.  Last year, Kersey played in one game as the entire season was a slog.  Finishing second was inspiring – maybe my favorite Bennett season yet – but there was no joy.  There will be a lot of pressure on these kids to perform and stay “clean” during the pandemic.  I know these kids are all desperate to play but a lot of teams are going to crumble under the pressure of the pandemic.  The more joy the players experience playing pandemic-ball, the farther we are going to go come March Madness.

Seattle Hoo

1) The Big Three have to be what I expect them to be this year. Let me preface by saying that for me, “success” this season means winning the ACC Regular Season Championship and making the Final Four. This team is that good – if the Big Three play at the ACC POY level that I think they are capable of. Kihei has to keep his assist rate where it was last year – 37.7% or 13th in Division I basketball – and cut his turnover rate almost in half from its 26.6% to 13-15%, while keeping his 3FG% and FT% the same. Sam has to remain a 40+% 3FG shooter on high volume and use his intelligence to mesh with the defense despite lack of experience in the packline. And Jay has to play the defense the way he did the last 8 games of last season while increasing his usage rate and 3FGr to at least where they were in his sophomore campaign and keeping those shooting percentages where they were. If all three make these eminently reasonable projections, the Hoos can succeed.

2) One of the freshmen needs to step up a la London Perrantes and Kihei Clark and excite Wahoo Nation with his unexpected excellence in a needed area. Listing the guys who have done it recently in breakout seasons for Bennett gives a hint to who it will probably be, but if he is competent defensively and the veteran wings shoot the three like they did last year, it could also be Carson McCorkle.

3) Tony needs to figure out which of his 4-12 players are going to be his most dynamic and ride them. He cannot reprise 2016-17 when a lack of separation between six players and an experience-vs-talent conflict on the perimeter flummoxed him and led to rotation chaos all year long. Pick the four guys you think are going to be the most dynamic in March and anoint them. Then they play regardless of mistakes unless and until one of the subs clearly kicks their asses in practice. Tony is coming off two of his best seasons, and a repeat will put a couple more banners in the JPJ (RIP Jack).