Leonard Hamilton fielding one of the ACC’s toughest, deepest, most well-coached teams is something of a given at this point. COVID interrupted what may have been their best squad even in the 2019-20 season, but they bounced back well with a Sweet 16 run last year. Expectations are high yet again.
Coach: Leonard Hamilton; 599–438 in 35 Seasons Overall; 399–228 (176–146) in 19 seasons at FSU
2020-21 Record: 18-7 (11-4); 2nd in ACC
2020-21 KenPom Efficiency:
| National: | AdjO: | 114.9 (16th of 357) |
| AdjD: | 92.8 (33rd of 357) | |
| ACC: | AdjO: | 113.7 (1st of 15) |
| AdjD: | 99.8 (4th of 15) |
Roster Roundup
Departures:
| G RayQuan Evans (Graduated)
24 G, 19.2 mpg, 5.1 ppg, 1.4 apg, 36% 3P% |
| SG M.J. Walker (Graduated)
24 G, 29 mpg, 12.2 ppg, 2.5 apg, 42% 3P% |
| SG Nathanael Jack (Transferred to Cleveland State)
19 G, 7.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg, 0.3 apg, 37% 3P% |
| F Sardaar Calhoun (Transferred to Texas Tech)
25 G, 14.2 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 40% 3P% |
| F Scottie Barnes (Turned Pro)
24 G, 24.8 mpg, 10.3 ppg, 4 rpg, 28% 3P% |
| PF Raiquan Gray (Turned Pro)
25 G, 26.3 mpg, 11.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 52% FG% |
| C Balsa Koprivica (Turned Pro)
24 G, 19.5 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 60% FG% |
Returners:
| SF Anthony Polite (SR)
21 G, 26.6 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 44% 3P% |
| PF Malik Osborne (SR)
24 G, 20.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 42% FG% |
| PF Wyatt Wilkes (SR)
25 G, 13.7 mpg, 3.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 41% FG% |
| C Quincy Ballard (SO)
18 G, 3.4 mpg, 1.2 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 71% FG% |
| C Tanor Ngom (SO)
23 G, 6.5 mpg, 2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 58% FG% |
Additions:
| G Caleb Mills (JR Transfer, Houston)
31 G, 22.5 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 1.1 apg, 37% 3P% |
| G Jalen Warley (4-star FR) |
| SF Cam’Ron Fletcher (SO Transfer, Kentucky)
9 G, 6.6 mpg, 1.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 25% 3P% |
| F Matthew Cleveland (5-star FR) |
| C John Butler (4-star FR) |
| C Naheem McLeod (RS SO Transfer, Chipola College) |
*Projected starters in bold
Outlook
FSU’s presence in the top tier of the ACC has become a relative given over the last few years, finishing with an ACCT double-bye four of the last five seasons. Staying atop the league this season will be a bit of a challenge for veteran coach Leonard Hamilton as he has a little more turnover to deal with than usual, though at this stage of his career it’s probably unsafe to bet against Coach Ham.
Six main rotation guys moved on. Evans, Koprivica, and Walker graduated and elected to start their post-collegiate careers rather than take their bonus year. Stud freshman Barnes and excellent big man Gray both unsurprisingly went pro. The only real shocker was the transfer of promising sharp-shooting forward Calhoun, who I thought Ham would turn into the next Devin Vassell this upcoming season.
The big takeaway is that there are no returning guards. Hamilton will immediately hand the keys to two new faces, former all-AAC second-teamer Caleb Mills (opted out last season) and Top 40 freshman Jalen Warley. How quickly they adjust to the ACC will largely set the ceiling for FSU this season.
They’ll have plenty of help, though. On the wings, Polite should step into a starring role this year as a senior with assists from 5-star rookie Cleveland and former-4-star Kentucky transfer Fletcher. Malik Osborne will captain a frontcourt with some youth and new faces that may need some time to come together, perhaps ultimately leading the ‘Noles to play a bit smaller than we’ve become accustomed to until one of the young centers breaks out.
This is a team that’s going to be building for March. The inexperience at the 1, 2 and 5 will cause some headaches early in the season, but there’s a ton of talent to work with and certainly Hamilton is expected to have this club improving over the course of the year. They’ll achieve a winning ACC record, though it remains to be seen if they can win enough early to challenge for the title. All the same, it’ll be a dangerous team that no one wants to face in the postseason, even if FSU lands a more mediocre seed, once Mills and Warley get comfortable running the team.