It’s Senior Night! But did we mention UVA is trying to snap out of a 3-game losing streak? Or that it’s MARCH? So what we’re getting at is tonight is big as Miami comes to town for UVA’s last home game of the year and the Hoos look to right the ship ahead of postseason play.

Game Details:

Date/Time: Monday, March 1st, 6:00pm EST
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
TV: ACC Network

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

The ABC’s of UM:

A) They’ve been crushed by personnel losses. It started in the preseason when veteran stretch-big Sam Waardenburg had a season-ending foot injury. A few games into the season, senior point guard Chris Lykes suffered an ankle injury that would never heal enough to let him come back this year. Senior big man Rodney Miller had a knee injury end his season in December. A shoulder injury kept star freshman Earl Timberlake out of early games, and while he came back for seven games in December and January, he was shut down again. Freshman forward Matt Cross quit the team in late January, eventually deciding to relocate to Louisville. And productive sophomore Harlond Beverly has missed the last few games with a back injury that likely will need the off-season to heal. It’s so bad they’ve had to turn to career walk-on Willie Herenton (namesake and grandson of Memphis Civil Rights leader of the same name, for those interested) in recent games to provide nightly depth in the backcourt.

B) Isaiah Wong’s been one of the ACC’s biggest breakout stars. The only really good story out of Coral Gables this year has been the explosion of four-star sophomore Wong. The #79 player in the 2019 class had a solid but overall quiet freshman campaign last year, 7.7 ppg and 1 apg, but in Lykes’ absence has taken over as the Hurricanes’ alpha. He leads the team in usage and shot rates, but does so while minimizing turnovers (14th lowest TO rate in the league), and hitting his 3’s at a great 37% in league play. He’s not a true PG, with Beverly (when healthy) or McGusty just as likely to generate assists, but he’s going to be a challenging cover for UVA’s defenders.

C) Their defense is weak across the board. With so much turnover in player availability, it’s no surprise that coach Larranaga struggles to put together a consistent defense, KenPom ranking them the ACC’s #13 defense right now. They’re in the bottom half of the league in basically every major statistical defensive category: 14th in 3P%, 11th in 2P%, 12th in block rate, 10th in turnover rate, 8th in defensive rebounding rate. Their defensive tempo is the fastest in the league basically because teams are able to score on them quickly, not needing to run a ton of patient offense to get good looks. If UVA’s offense struggles here, especially with Woldetensae expected back, then there are very real concerns warranted.

Their season to date:

Miami is 7-15 on the year, 3-14 in ACC play. Before injuries took their toll, they took down Purdue in December but never recovered from an 0-4 league start. The bright spot was a 77-75 upset of Duke in Coral Gables to start February, but since then have lost 5 straight, most recently by 8 at Clemson on Saturday.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Don’t put them on the line. A big reason UVA lost to NC State (there were a few, of course) was giving State 28 attempts from the FT line, of which they hit 23. Miami’s offense doesn’t excel at much, but they are in the ACC’s top third in FTA/FGA ratio. Wong and Walker are both Top 25 in the ACC in rate of fouls drawn, and even Brooks got a 10 FTA game against GT a couple weeks ago. Miami’s not the best shooting team in the ACC, but they’ll be looking to get around 20 FTAs, their average in a number of ACC games recently, to bail out weak shooting percentages. The Hoos must tighten up the defense to play clean and keep it closer to 10 attempts, with Clemson was able to do to them Saturday.

2) Good zone offense for good 3 point looks. Miami’s been reliant on a variety of zone looks in recent years to try and confuse opponents, be aggressive with trapping, and cover for poor system continuity. With this year’s depth concerns giving additional need to keep players fresh, expect Miami to continue to give us zone looks and Virginia is going to need to efficiently diagnose them, attack the seams, and then use those to find open shooters. Good zone offense run through the paint should provide looks for Hauser, Woldetensae, and Murphy from 3, while of course letting Huff feast on the rim.

3) Run away in the second half. When Miami’s only bench options (barring some sort of surprise return of an injured player) are a walk-on (Herenton) and a 7-footer whose only now finally seeing the first healthy stretch of his career (Gak), the Hoos should absolutely have the depth advantage here with Tomas back in the lineup. Virginia needs to press that advantage by grinding down Miami’s starters, who played another road game just 48 hours ago, either wearing down their legs or getting them into foul trouble, so that the Hoos can get some separation down the stretch. Clemson let Miami hang around in the second half, only winning the frame by 4. But while Miami has occasionally started well in recent games, leading ND by 5 and Clemson by 7 in the first halves of recent contests, they don’t have the horses to stay in those races. There’s a chance UVA builds up a big lead by the break (both FSU and GT were able to essentially end their games against Miami by halftime a couple weeks ago), recent disappointing UVA performances make me think it’ll be the 2nd half before the Hoos are able to gain final separation.

Predictions:

Virginia hasn’t lost on Senior Night since 2012. It’s one of the most sacrosanct streaks of the Peak Tony run. Even in years where UVA’s struggled down the stretch, they’ve still managed to gut out wins on Senior Night (Maryland in 2013, VT in 2015, Pitt in 2017).

I don’t want to put this rudely, but there’s zero excuse for that streak not to stretch to 9 tonight. Miami is bad. They’re battling, and all credit to Wong and McGusty and crew for going out every night and trying to prove they belong, but the results speak for themselves. They’re in competition with Wake and BC for the worst record and worst efficiencies in the league. They’ve lost 9 ACC games by double digits. They haven’t won a road game in almost two months. Wake Forest(!) beat them by 12.

With that said, UVA’s struggles of late are very real, and Virginia had zero business being beaten by NC State the other day either. I could excuse the @FSU and @Duke losses, but I can’t excuse the terrible home showing against a mediocre NC State, not the way the Pack started that game putting UVA in a hole it would never climb out of. And Miami has played some teams tight, including giving a good Clemson a battle in Littlejohn the other day. As such, no way in good conscience I can predict UVA to cover a double-digit spread. Over UVA’s last 8 games we’re just 4-4, and of those four wins only one was by double digits. Miami is bad, but UVA has been falling into that nasty trap of playing to the level of their opponents. And don’t forget, Miami was similarly bad last year and almost pulled off the upset of UVA late in the year.

So I’ll take us to win on Senior Night, with traditionally nice games from the senior trio of Sam, Jay, and Tomas, but beyond that I’m not getting overly excited. There’s an old saying, “when someone shows you who they are, believe them.” UVA has been showing us who they are recently, and that’s a team that isn’t clicking.

Hoos Win – 64-55