Virginia kicks off its 2020-21 basketball season in “Bubbleville”, a slightly misnamed (it’s not a true bubble like the NBA’s was) neutral mega-site at the Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, CT, site of last year’s Air Force Reserve tournament (wins over UMass and Arizona State). Virginia will be the heavy favorite, and ordinarily these sorts of mid-major puff games aren’t super interesting from a competitive standpoint. But being Game #1 with a roster featuring four or five new faces, this will be a must-watch if for no other reason than to get a read on Tony’s intentions regarding his 12-(13?-)deep roster.

Game Details:

Date/Time: Wednesday, November 25th, 1:30 PM
Location: Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, CT
TV: Flo Sports

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

*Using 2019-20 season statistics

The ABC’s of Towson:

A) They lost their top 3 players from last year. The Tigers finished 3rd in last year’s CAA led by second team all-CAA senior Brian Fobbs and his 16.3 points a game. Graduating with him was solid big man Nakye Sanders (9.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg). But the most disappointing attrition came when All-CAA 3rd team sophomore Allen Bertrand (13.6 ppg) elected to transfer to Rhode Island. CAA All-Defensive big man Dennis Tunstall graduated as well.

B) They’ll play smaller this year. With Sanders and Tunstall gone, Towson won’t be able to play as big as they did last year, when they were able to play two posts and both defend the paint and hit the offensive glass effectively. Transfer 7-footer Victor Uyaelunmo arrives from Southern Cal but he only managed minimal impact on less than 7 minutes a game there. Sophomore Charles Thompson played 15 minutes a game as a rookie but at 6’7″ is a bit undersized. Gray is 6’8″ but skinny and better suited to the perimeter. UVA should have an advantage at the 4 and 5 here, even when we go to the bench with McKoy and Caffaro.

C) They’ll sport an exciting backcourt. Starting at the point will be sophomore Jason GIbson who ended last season on the CAA’s all-freshman team with 8.4 ppg and 2.1 apg, hitting a solid 37% on his 3’s. Joining him is a comeback kid in Zane Martin, a scoring wing who put up 19.8 ppg for Towson three seasons ago, but spent the last two years at New Mexico (10.1 ppg, 3.1 apg as a RS Jr in the Mountain West). The starting 2 is another transfer, Curtis Holland III who put up 12.7 ppg for High Point in the Big South last year.

Their season to date:

This is Towson”s first game of the year as well. Last year they went 19-12 overall, and 12-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association, ending their season in the first round of the CAA tournament to Northeastern.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Make some 3’s. Let’s be honest, this isn’t about whether we win so much as it is about whether we’re able to win comfortably and confidently. And last year, our offensive struggles were evident right out of the gate, with a 4-of-25 3-point outing in the opening game and no evident improved a few weeks later when we went 6-of-18 from deep in the win over Maine (and that was bouyed only by Kihei’s 3-of-4 day). Will this year’s team do any better? Woldetensae was shaking off rust from a broken shooting hand last year, and we add some talented rookies who could help us stretch the floor, to say nothing of the impact of our transfer(s) Sam Hauser (44.5% career from 3 at Marquette) and potentially-eligible Trey Murphy (38.5% career at Rice). But how about we see it live in a game first?

2) Don’t let their shooters warm up. Towson went out and got a pair of shooters in Holland III who hit 39% from 3 at High Point and Cam Allen who hit 40% at CS Bakersfield. Rotating with wunderkind Gibson means Towson will always have shooters at the 1 and 2, and they’ll try to get them on track to open up the lane for Martin’s preferred dribble-drive game. Even stretch 4 Gray, who hit only 30% from deep last year, will still hoist 2 or 3 long range bombs a game, hoping he can get on track to further improve floor spacing. The Packline must be locked in early this year with good closeouts to prevent the upset minded Tigers from finding a rhythm.

3) Win the defensive glass. A key staple of coach Pat Skerry’s teams at Towson is a commitment to attacking their offensive glass. They’ve never finished worse than the top 15% of D-1 per KenPom’s OR% numbers in his 9 seasons, often times being in the top 5%. That will likely drop off to some degree this year without the dominant senior big men he featured last year, but the system dictates he’ll send his guards to compensate, especially knowing UVA is unlikely to punish aggression with transition. I could see some Tony frustration as the hungry Cinderella outhustles some UVA players to rebounds.

Predictions:

Will UVA win? Sure. Kihei, Hauser, and Huff will see to that. Will we win smoothly? We’ll see. It’s opening night and we’ve got a lot of new faces and 12 or 13 mouths to feed. Our Connecticut trip is an opportunity to experiment with lineups, work out kinks, shake off rust, and all of that adds up to potentially uneven play, especially in an unfamiliar gym without a crowd. I don’t expect Towson’s defense to look great with the new faces and the lack of size, but they’re accustomed to being one of the CAA’s tougher, harder working teams and they’ll hustle regardless. A few blown rebound assignments, a couple sloppy turnovers that turn into transition Tiger points, some still-rocky shooting from our guard/wings, and it could easily be a Towson cover. I still expect UVA to be a really good team this year, but I’m being conservative on my expectations for the first game, not unless Tony has a locked in rotation he really likes and sticks with it for the first 30 minutes or so.

Hoos Win – 64-47