Background

Sam Hauser is going to revolutionize Virginia Basketball. Tony Bennett has had some great shooters. He has had some real good offensive posts. He has brought in a lot of transfers. But he has never had a transfer THIS good. He has not had a shooter THIS good at a post position (yes, I know Jay Huff is on the team). And he has never had a post player THIS good offensively. In his last year at Marquette, Hauser had a 123.7 ORtg at Kenpom, which was good for #65 in the nation. With an 11.9% TORate. And a 92.4% FT%, good for #4 in the nation.

Oh, and lest you think he was just a scorer, Sam had a Defensive Rebound Rate of 19.5%. Move over to Synergy Sports, and his overall Defensive Rating was 92% (standard Synergy defense disclaimers apply).

For his career, Hauser has shot 52.4% from two-point range and 44.5% from three.

"He's been fantastic and we're really looking forward to seeing him actually play this year." Jay on Sam Hauser (@Big_Smooth10) ?⚔️?#GoHoos pic.twitter.com/LrRr7Bbqrj

— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) November 11, 2020

Sam Hauser is a superstar. He is the kind of player a team needs to make a strong run at the national championship. He is exactly what the Cavaliers lacked last season. He went for 30 points once, 25 twice more, and 20 another five times – and this was WITH Markus Howard! A championship team needs at least one player who can just go off and get baskets in bushels – even against good defense. It is no coincidence that the Hoos had their best NCAA Tournaments with Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, and The Big Three.

Strengths

Go grab a beer and sit back. The rundown above should give you a head start on what is going to be here. Sam is a great shooter. Shot over 40% from the arc in each of his three seasons at Marquette. It’s not just the numbers, though; it’s also the variety. Sam can shoot spotted up. He can shoot coming off screens. He can shoot off the dribble. He can shoot with a hand in his face. He’s a very good shooter on short-range jumpers, and excellent from medium and long range. Interestingly enough, he’s better as the Pick & Roll Ball Handler than the Roll Man.

As noted above, Hauser can go off. He’s not a guy who is going to get 14 or 15 points and be happy to let others get theirs. Nope. Not saying he’s selfish, but he’s entirely comfortable shooting that open shot after firing up 20 previous attempts. He’ll share the ball – he had solid Assist Rates his last two years at Marquette – but he’s not shy and he’s ready – and able – to take the shots when his team needs a basket.

You’ve probably heard “he’s more of a scorer than a shooter” before, and you will hear it again as we move on to some of the other newcomers, but for Sam it’s “he’s not just a shooter, he’s also a scorer.” We focus on the three-point shot and the percentages, but Sam is also good at posting up – his 0.929 PPP on Post Ups in 2019 was better than any UVA post in a long time, probably since Anthony Gill. He’s excellent at converting on Cuts, which is a staple of the Virginia offense for blockers, and on Isolation plays, which goes along with that “Alpha Scorer” thing we talked about above. When a basket is needed, you can give the ball to Sam and clear out. More often than not, he will deliver.

As a 6-8, 220-pound 5th-year senior, Sam is a big guy. He’s also a big guy with good footwork and a good handle. He gives lineup versatility with the ability to play the five situationally and also slide to the wing in other situations. He can pair with anyone, and can switch roles on the fly with almost anyone, giving the team tactical flexibility on the fly.

If Synergy is to be believed, don’t think defense is a weakness just because Sam is a shooter, a white guy, and came from Marquette. Nope. He graded out overall as “Excellent” by Synergy, with a 92% rating. The 0.312 PPP he gave up on Isolation and the 0.48 PPP on Post Ups were among the best in the nation. And, as said above, he had a very good 19.5 DR% his last year, which is very consistent with Virginia’s top rebounders.

Finally, let’s talk about intangibles. Hauser is a leader; he’s a spokesman. He has been front and center dealing with the media, talking up his teammates. On the court and in practice, though, he will hold his mates accountable and does not hesitate to use his experience to teach. With Huff and Kihei Clark, Sam is going to give the Hoos a strong, passionate, highly competitive leadership core.

Weaknesses

He’s not very pretty. He doesn’t have a 45″ vertical leap. He doesn’t tear down rims. We only get him for one year. He has not had a chance to get in those 1000 minutes played to master the system.

Ok, so only the last two items were serious. Sam just doesn’t really have any weaknesses as a player. The biggest weakness he will have is familiarity with the defense and recognition of where he should be. Braxton Key’s first year is a good illustration of what to expect with Sam. Braxton made a lot of great plays, especially when systems broke down and it’s all athleticism and instinct, but he also made a ton of mistakes in the halfcourt defense. He was often out of position, late on rotations, missing assignments. Some of the times people wondered why he was on the bench were because of some big mistakes Tony saw. The next year, those mistakes were pretty much gone and Braxton was a defensive stalwart.

Sam is not going to get that second year. His one year at UVA is probably going to include a lot of mistakes just like with Braxton. It’s something his teammates on the floor are going to have to cover for. What does that imply for strategy and tactics? It’s going to lead Bennett to limit some combinations. Is he going to want Sam out there with a couple of freshmen? Unlikely. That means that Kody Stattmann is going to have a built-in advantage over Jabri Abdur-Rahim for minutes with Sam. That means Francisco Caffaro is going to have to know his spots and rotations if he is going to pair a lot with Sam. It’s a good thing Huff has logged his 1000 minutes already and is so good at erasing mistakes.

Role

For the second year in a row, Virginia is going to be built around a fifth-year senior post, a transfer post, and a Mongoose. Hauser is going to start, and he is going to be one of Virginia’s three 30-minute men. He will be a mainstay of the offense, with his exact role varying based on the personnel around him. When paired with Jay Huff, look for Hauser to work the baseline from corner to corner. Sam is an excellent spot-up shooter, but not great as the Pick & Roll Roll Man. Huff, on the other hand, is one of the best in the country as a Roll Man. So look for Hauser to take up residence in a corner when Kihei and Jay are running the high ball screen action. Hauser is also a much better post scorer than Huff, and the high-low game with the two of them should be potent.

When Sam finds himself partnering with Caffaro, on the other hand, look for Hauser on the perimeter while Caffaro stays near the lane. With that blocker duo, expect to see more Sides than Continuity Ball Screen with Caffaro setting pin-downs and posting up, while Hauser sets weak side flares and flashes to the arc off his pin-downs. Kadin Shedrick as a post partner probably results in similar tactics to Caffaro, as I would not expect Bennett to let Kadin stray too much from the blocker basics in his first year of action.

Hauser’s role in the offensive set could also vary if he sees time as a mover. While he’s not great as the Roll Man, he is a very, very good Pick & Roll Ball Handler. With his size and proficiency shooting off the dribble, he puts tremendous pressure on the defense to play screens aggressively, which creates opportunities for the screener. Imagine Jay Huff setting a screen and both defenders charging Hauser to take away the immediate three, leaving Jay with a clear lane to the basket – or an uncontested pop to the arc. If Jay rolls and the off-ball defense reacts, imagine a Tomas Woldetensae executing the “replace’ – coming to a wide open three-point shot location.

Obviously, Hauser will have a huge role this season. He gives Virginia another “Big Three” with Huff and Clark. The abilities of the three players are seamlessly complementary, as if they were designed to work together.

Riffing off the above paragraph, we could see a lot of “Three Man Inside Motion” with Huff and Clark, and Hauser either as the third inside man or as one of the spacers stationed in the corner. If Hauser is a spacer, imagine Casey Morsell or Abdur-Rahim as the third inside man while Woldetensae holds down the corner opposite Hauser. If Hauser is the third inside man, then Woldetensae and the fifth player would space the floor (hooever manages to find his three-point shot this offseason).

Reasonable Expectations

It is quite reasonable to have optimistic expectations for Hauser in his one year in the lineup. He will play 30 minutes every game, he will average in double figures and have more 20-point games than single-digit, he will shoot 40+% from three, and he will be at least second-team All-ACC.

Optimistic Expectations

Jon Rothstein already projected Sam to be ACC Player of the Year. That’s a pretty optimistic expectation, but it is not unwarranted. Jerry Ratcliffe agreed. While Garrison Brooks overwhelmingly won the preseason vote, Ratcliffe (and 23 others) voted for Hauser. Hauser definitely has first-team All-ACC potential and also All-American. He’s that good and the talent and system around him are that conducive. Thing is, Sam might end up being so good that he gets Kihei Clark or Jay Huff the ACC POY award. Which of the three will defenses decide to focus on, and which of them will defenses choose to let do his damage? The one defenses choose to let go could end up getting all the accolades.

But optimistic expectations for Hauser would see him with the same 30+ mpg but averaging between 15-20 ppg, shooting 45+% from three, dropping 30 at least once and making Player of the Year. I haven’t talked much about defense or rebounding in these last three sections, because his role and expectations are a bit more obvious or pedestrian – he’s not going to be blowing up offenses with blocked shots or steals – and with Huff around Hauser might not be called upon to do as much rebounding. Nevertheless, he has the chops as a rebounder to grab a DR% of 20+ and notch a few double-doubles.

Final Analysis

A lot of people questioned the wisdom of taking a “sit one to play one” transfer when Hauser came available. Analyzing the roster now, it looks like a pretty damn canny move by Tony Bennett. While that scholarship could have produced a very good recruit who would be a sophomore this year, it is highly unlikely that hypothetical high school stud would be a superstar candidate. Rather than a foundation of three outstanding veteran stars, the team would still need a high level complement to arise for Huff and Clark if the offensive issues of last year were to be avoided. With Hauser, we have that third star.

Yes, we only get one year of Sam Hauser, but it promises to be a helluva year, and then 6-9 transfer Trey Murphy will be ready to step into his shoes and keep this train rolling.