Vanderbilt Commodores

The Hoos kick off the headlining weekend of the NIT Tip-Off event at the Barclays Center in NYC (home of the NBA’s Nets and Joe Harris) on Thanksgiving Day, hoping to punch their way into Friday’s title game against the winner of Seton Hall / Rhode Island. The Commodores are still searching for their first statement win of the season after falling at home in overtime to ranked foe Southern Cal. Will the Hoos be ready to take Vanderbilt’s best shot?

Game Details:

Date/Time: Thursday, Nov 23rd, 4:00 PM ET
Location: Barclay’s Center, Brooklyn, NY
TV: ESPNU

What ‘They’ Say

Depth Chart:

Starters

Key Reserves

The ABC’s of Vandy:

A) They’re playing a smaller, a very Virginia Tech-like offense. Three true guards in Lee, Fisher-Davis, and LaChance. A smaller combo forward at the 4, who plays outside-in, but has the physicality to crash boards and battle bigger power forwards. Similar to ND (Colson) and VT (Clarke), that combo forward spot is proving very productive, with Roberson putting up 13 points and 10 rebounds a night. This should be a very exciting matchup to watch as Wilkins will undoubtedly play a lot of minutes against him. Roberson plays 37 minutes a night for Vandy. They rotate a trio of traditional big men at the 5, none of whom stand out, though Baptiste is coming on strong and may even start this game.

B) They’ve regressed significantly defensively from last year, when they were the #38 defense in the country. Gone is anchor center Luke Kornet, and with it their rim protection, blocking zero shots against USC. To compensate they’ve tried to pack in their defense, giving up ball disruption (they only forced 6 USC turnovers on Sunday). The upside is they’re effectively controlling the defensive glass, with Fisher-Davis joining their bigs in their defensive rebounding percentage of 76.7%, 61st nationally.

C) They’re turnover prone, but it rarely turns into fast break points. They’re starting a true freshman at the point, former 4-star Lee, so some inconsistencies with the ball were to be expected. Our defense should generate some bad passes and sloppy ball movement, both from Lee at the point and from their big men (2.5 TOs a game from reserve post Toye, 2.0 TOs a night from Roberson), though we shouldn’t expect as much of the opportunistic break opportunities as we’ve seen the last three games. One thing to watch: Lee got benched for long stretches in their USC loss on Sunday in favor of reserve junior Austin, a transfer from Xavier, who had a breakout game of 13 points (after scoring 6 in the first 3 games combined) and 6 assists (after only 4 total in the first 3 games).

Their season to date:

The Commodores are 2-2 on the season so far. Their best win is a 3 point win over UNC-Asheville. They lost 69-60 at Belmont and most recently in overtime, 93-89 hosting #10 Southern Cal.

Keys to getting the win:

1) Do not let them get hot from 3. The Commodores got off to a cool start from 3 this year, hitting only 20-67 (30%) through their first three games. They started to warm up Sunday against USC, however, going 11-23 (48%) for the game, but it would be a mistake to assume their season average so far is representative. Fisher-Davis shot 37% last year. LaChance shot 49%, and Toye shot 40%. They’re looking to get hot, and they will if we let them, just like USC let them shoot their way into the near upset. Physical perimeter defense, good closeouts, and good ball screen hedges will be essential to take away this dimension to their offense.

2) Don’t foul. Vandy is in the top 10% nationally in getting to the line, with a FTA/FGA ratio of 49.5%. They shot 28 FTAs vs USC, 29 vs UNC-A, and 26 against Belmont. Roberson and Fisher-Davis are the primary beneficiaries of this strategy, with season FT stats of 20-22 and 18-19 respectively. It is going to be critical for our defenders to challenge drives without making body contact, because we know the Commodores will be looking for it. Think playing against VT, with their propensity to throw themselves into the defender, looking to draw the foul first and score second.

3) Spread and attack on offense. Vandy’s defense is struggling so far this year, and it’s in a variety of ways. They’re pedestrian defending the three-point line, pedestrian in the paint, and have put some opponents on the FT line at a good rate. How should Virginia beat their defense? By utilizing the entire half-court. Lots of motion in a variety of spots on the floor, then exploit their lack of paint presence with drives off ball screens and then finish in the lane or kick to a shooter. Lather, rinse, repeat. 

Predictions:

This is a “should-win.” Vanderbilt has some nice pieces, and a good young coach in his second year at the helm. But their play thus far has been underwhelming, especially their defense. If the Hoos can continue playing good offense, getting into the lane and playing aggressive, confident ball, then the only chance the Commodores should have is to win at the FT line. I see the game starting close, with the Hoos building a small lead going into halftime, but whistles (many we won’t agree with) will help Vandy close the gap in the second half. I think we pull it out however, nursing a small lead through the final minutes.

Hoos win, 70-65.